Understanding Blocknative's Gas Estimator: Why Do Some Predictions Show the Same Values?

Understanding Blocknative's Gas Estimator: Why Do Some Predictions Show the Same Values?

If you've ever tried to send a transaction on a blockchain network, you know that gas prices can be a bit of a puzzle. You want your transaction to go through quickly, but you also don't want to overpay. That's where tools like Blocknative's Gas Estimator come in handy. They give you an idea of what gas price to use so your transaction gets confirmed in a timely manner.

But you might have noticed something odd: sometimes, the estimator shows the same gas price for different confidence levels. For example, the 99%, 90%, and 70% predictions might all display the exact same value. What's up with that? Let's break it down in plain language.

Gas Price Predictions Are About Probability

First off, it's important to understand that gas price predictions are all about probability. Blocknative's gas platform looks at recent blocks, transaction patterns, and how busy the network is to estimate what gas price will get your transaction confirmed in the next block.

We present these estimates in terms of confidence levels:

• 70% Prediction: There's a 70% chance your transaction will be confirmed at this gas price.
• 90% Prediction: There's a 90% chance.
• 99% Prediction: You guessed it—a 99% chance.

Think of these as an "envelope" that wraps around the possible gas prices you might need, based on how unpredictable the network is at that moment.

So Why Do Different Confidence Levels Show the Same Gas Price?

Above you can see Blocknative's Gas Estimator is returning similar values across different confidence intervals on POL. 

1. The Network Is Super Stable

When the network is humming along smoothly—meaning transactions are flowing consistently and there's not much congestion—the uncertainty about gas prices drops. The estimator sees that things have been steady and, as a result, the range of possible gas prices narrows down. This can make the 70%, 90%, and 99% predictions all land on the same number.

Imagine you're at a coffee shop that always charges $2 for a cup of coffee. No matter what time you go, the price doesn't change. In this case, your best guess for the price at any confidence level is $2.

2. There's Not Enough Variation in Recent Data

Sometimes, the network might have processed transactions at the same gas price for several blocks in a row. When there's no variation in recent gas prices, the estimator doesn't have different numbers to work with for different confidence levels. So, it shows the same value across the board.

The "Elastic Band" of Uncertainty

Think of the predictions as an elastic band that stretches and contracts:

• When the network is unpredictable, the band stretches. The 70%, 90%, and 99% predictions will show different gas prices because there's a wider range of possibilities.
  For example, the 70% prediction might be 120 units, the 90% prediction 150 units, and the 99% prediction 200 units.
• When the network is stable, the band contracts. The predictions converge, sometimes showing the same value.
  All confidence levels might predict 25 units because that's what's been happening consistently.

What Does This Mean for You?

Seeing duplicate values in the gas estimator isn't a bug or a mistake—it's actually useful information.

• It Signals Stability: The network is stable right now, so you can be confident that the gas price isn't going to spike suddenly.
• Easier Decision-Making: You don't have to stress about picking the "right" gas price. Since all the predictions are the same, it's a safe bet.
• Stay Alert: Remember, network conditions can change. If your transaction is time-sensitive, keep an eye on the estimator in case things start to heat up.

Works Across Different Blockchains

Blocknative's gas estimator isn't just for one blockchain—it supports multiple networks. While each network has its own quirks, the basic idea of gas price predictions and confidence levels works the same way everywhere.

The Bottom Line

Understanding how gas estimators work can save you time, money, and a lot of hassle. When you see the same gas price across different confidence levels, it's actually a good thing. It means the network is stable, and you can proceed with confidence.

So next time you're about to send a transaction and notice those duplicate predictions, you'll know exactly what's going on. It's just the network's way of saying, "All clear!"

Go Hands On With Blocknative

Blocknative's Gas API delivers over 600 requests every second. You can integrate it into your project today or go hands-on with the Gas Estimator via our webpage or browser extension.